My predictions for the Nevada caucuses..
For the Democrats..
Hillary will win Nevada, Obama will run a close second and John Edwards will get demolished (and hopefully he’ll go away but I KNOW that wouldn’t happen..lol)
The reason behind Hillary winning is not going to be Obama’s lack of organization or his ‘supporters’ not understanding caucus rules or being able to caucus at the casinos the reason is a lot simpler than that-Hispanics are not going to support a black guy for President.
Hispanics will/would prefer to support a white women with close ties to the Hispanic community than a BLACK guy who resembles one of their neighbors on the block or a fellow co-worker.
Hispanics and Blacks have often fought for the same crumbs that fell from the table and this has led to a power struggle between the two groups.
And according to sociologists who conducted extensive surveys in Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Philadelphia they have generally found that ‘Latinos display more prejudice toward African Americans than African Americans do toward Latinos or than whites display toward African Americans.’
In addition a Duke University sociologist Paula McClain, working with nine other sociologists, found similar attitudes among Latinos living in Durham, North Carolina. According to McClain et al., “Latino immigrants hold negative stereotypical views of blacks and feel that they have more in common with whites than with blacks.” For instance, 58.9 percent of Latino immigrants, but only 9.3 percent of whites, reported feeling that “few or almost no blacks are hard-working.”
This bares repeating,“ Latino immigrants hold negative stereotypical views of blacks and FEEL THAT THEY HAVE MORE IN COMMON WITH WHITES THAN BLACKS.”
This is the numero uno reason Obama loses Nevada.
Although a number of Hispanics voting in the caucuses will not be foreign born a number of them will have parents who were and stereotypes are conveyed from generation to generation but they also at the same time can be shed and broken.
You see, Hispanics and Blacks have often fought for the same crumbs that fell from the table and this has led to a power struggle between the two groups and if you feel you have more in common with the white politician than you do your neighbor than this will definitely count against Barack Obama and I don’t see him overcoming this in just a few days of campaigning.
Black/Brown issues have always been closely intertwined i.e fighting racism and economic empowerment African Americans have often viewed Hispanics as late comers to the civil rights movement and have often viewed their accomplishments in this society as being built on their backs and this is one of the many sources of tension between the two groups.
Hispanics and Blacks are often competing in the same neighborhoods, with high levels of poverty, for the same social services and the same jobs leading to the greatest sources of friction between the two groups and with such high levels of poverty it often leads to increased criminal activities including gang formation and gang wars thus leading to numerous deaths on both sides.
In Nevada, Hispanics will have the chance to prove that ‘we’re all in this together’ and that we have to combine resources and organizations in order to get things done and issues resolved for the betterment of both our communities. I hope that many Latinos can put aside their negative stereotypes and views and vote for the best person for the job, Barack Obama, I really hope they do and that they prove my observations wrong once again.