Who’s winning and who will win Iowa

According to The Des Moines Register Obama and Huckabee are leading Clinton and Romney respectively.

And Edwards, on the democratic side, is close third.

But I really do believe that because Edwards has basically been campaigning in Iowa for the past 4 years that gives him an advantage over the other three democratic candidates and this should not be discounted.

Think about it this way if you were an Iowan the two other democratic candidates could be viewed as johnny-come-latelies while Edwards is seen as a familiar face somebody who has been working for and wants to work for you, the people of Iowa so when you go into that caucus room you will be thinking about change, passion, idealism but ultimately the person who resonates most and has left a lasting impression and who believe worked the hardest to convince you that they would be the best person for the job as president is the person that could ultimately win.

And I believe Edwards has done that for Iowans. 

According to the NY times ‘Edwards has since 2005 spent more than 100 days in Iowa’ and he has ‘fiercely courted rural voters in particular, visiting all 99 counties — twice’.

John Edwards has been working extremely to hard to garner Iowans votes and I do think it will ultimately pay off tomorrow.

Although the polls have either Clinton or Obama in the lead I think Edwards is the practical choice to practical Iowa Democratic voters. He says all the right things, he is white (although nobody wants to say that..I will..) and he makes you believe that he actually will change things in Wahsington. So he’s all things to everybody in the Democratic party and you do need to be that if you’re going to be a poltician and I believe that in any other election year Edwards would have had the nomination locked up.

However, this time it’s different and although Obama or Clinton could ultimately become the party’s nominee Iowa Democrats see Edwards as their choice because his platform core issues resonate with them and also he’s the one that could win a general election. Practicality.

Their hearts might be with Obama or Clinton but their minds and their votes will go with Edwards.

As far as the Republican goes I see Huckabee winning all the way because Huckabee embodies all that Iowa republicans stand for he’s on the right side of all the issues they care about and although some of his statements on immigration might be a bit too ‘compasssionate’ for their liking, he’s a pastor therefore he get’s a pass on that regards.

Romney is a flip flopper i.e John Kerry..lol and even though I’m willing to say his money and machinery might ultimately pay off in the end I believe Huckabee’s likeablity, his religion and his position on all the core issues will push him across the finish line.

But hey I’m known to be wrong check back here tomorrow to see how wrong I am…


3 thoughts on “Who’s winning and who will win Iowa

  1. Very insigtful analysis and likely pretty darn accurate.

    I blogged today encouraging Iowans and New Hampshirites to choose Paul and Kucinich. I think we need to stop nibbling around the edges with these establishment candidates go for a real shake up.

    Where do your feelings sit on this slate of candidates?

  2. Ray, in an ideal world Kucinich would be the nominee and ultimately the president.

    If I were Republican or republican leaning Paul would win hands down but neither of these men realistically has a shot at winning unless there is a ‘real revolution’ and unfortunately due to a number of circumstances that revolution will not be forthcoming this time around-this time!

    As for my stance on the other candidates here’s my breakdown:

    I’m not overly impressed with the resumes, skills or experience of Clinton, Edwards or Obama if I were to choose a person based on his resume, skills and experience I would have to go with Richardson.
    But let’s be honest he lacks money and charisma and although he comes off as a really nice guy he really needs a stylist..I’m sorry but image although it’s not everything does count for something.

    I must say though that if Obama or Clinton were nominated and were ultimately to become president it would be a momentous and historic occassion and the ripple effects of their presidency would be immesurable. And who knows if Obama being black and Clinton being woman would bring a lasting changes the US and the world.

    As for Biden I think he’s limited to foreign policy while Dodd would make an excellent VP, as well as Richardson, due to his foreign policy experience and also he has some signature issues like education and law & order.

    On the Republican side:

    Mitt Romney is a flip flopper and he comes off as insincere and disingenious and this is problematic. He also is too clean cut he doesn’t give me the impression that he could cut my lawn or take out my garbage that’s he’s a man not a man’s man but just a man.

    Giuliani is limited to foreign policy experience and even within that field his knowledge and experience is very limited however he would be a very strong leader.

    Mccain would be an excellent leader of this I’m sure but he would be a continuation of the same and this is not what the US or the world needs.

    Thompson was to be the savior instead he’s a dud. He knows how to say what needs to be said but he’s doesn’t look like he actually believes the things he’s saying and he’s also too laid back..come on..dude..wake up.
    Also other than being a conservative tell me one thing he’s said that you either agree or disagree with all the other candidates have issues what does he have? And this is coming from a hard core political junkie like myself I wonder how many people out there know his name or have even heard of him let alone what he represents?

    As for the other candidates all I’ll say is come on….

  3. Pingback: I was wrong…kinda.. « conversations with an unapologetic black liberal

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