Clinton will win Pennsylvania tonight, of that there is little doubt.
However, I want to see how close Obama comes and how well he does with white voters who make below $50 000 that demographic will be crucial come November when Obama is the nominee if he improves on his numbers since the last two primary elections in Ohio and Texas there is hope that he can bring that solid democratic base home but if he loses John McCain might be the beneficiary of those democrats come November.
In Texas and Ohio, Clinton carried 55% of voters who have less than a college education. In contests in Wisconsin, Maryland and Virginia, she won just 36%-43% of those voters. She carried 61% of white voters in Ohio and 55% in Texas.
Obama should not cede these voters unless he plans to massively increase the numbers among two of his coaltions’ core group young people and progressive baby boomers. And I don’t believe there is much room for improvement among these groups so he has to expand his coaltion.
And he could do it here with these traditional democrats.
The white women in this particular demographic might prove extremely difficult to win over since I do believe that a number of them will feel slighted and burned and some out of resentment towards Obama might..MIGHT stay away from the polls in a misguided effort of protest come election day but the men are still fair game..
Obama might just be able to win them over to his side even before then but we’ll have to wait and see but Pennsylvania will definitely help to give us a clearer picture on how things might break down come November..
As usual I’ll be up live blogging the results and if you can, stay up and join me it’s going to be a hot, hot night and frankly it’s about damn time I was getting bored..lol..